Sandwiches en la Torre de la Vela

Asociacionismo, libertad y comida rápida, por Jahd

6 de Octubre 2004

Las dudas públicas del "palo de hockey"

Para los despistados, el palo de hockey es como se llama al estudio que ha desembocado en la histeria del calentamiento global y el engendro de Kyoto, y debe su nombre a la forma de palo de hockey (tumbado) que ofrece la gráfica de temperaturas: estable durante siglos y con un repentino incremento en el siglo XX.

Ha habido estudios que desmienten los datos, métodos y conclusiones del palo de hockey, pero raramente tienen repercusión en los medios.

Curiosamente, en el New York Times de ayer apareció este artículo que cuestiona los estudios que en último término han desembocado en Kyoto:

New Research Questions Uniqueness of Recent Warming

A new analysis has challenged the accuracy of a climate timeline showing that recent global warming is unmatched for a thousand years.

That timeline, generated by stitching together hints of past temperatures embedded in tree rings, corals, ice layers and other sources, is one strut supporting the widely accepted view that the current warm spell is being caused mainly by accumulating heat-trapping smokestack and tailpipe emissions.

The authors of the study, published in the current issue of the online journal ScienceExpress, said they did not dispute that a sharp warming was under way and that its pace could signal a human influence. But they said their test of the methods used to mesh recent temperature records with centuries-old evidence showed that past natural climate shifts were most likely sharply underestimated.
[...]
The lead author of the new study, Dr. Hans von Storch of Germany's GKSS research center, disagreed, saying his conclusion was simply that the old method of integrating climate clues from beyond a century ago was flawed.

The significance of the new analysis comes partly because the record it challenges is a central icon in the debate over whether heat-trapping emissions should be curbed. The hallmark of the original method is a graph widely called the "hockey stick" because of its shape: a long, relatively unwavering line crossing the last millennium and then a sharp, upward-turning "blade" of warming over the last century.

The new study essentially says the shaft of the stick could well be profoundly warped and the old statistical method would not notice.

Aunque no se diga claramente que el palo de hockey es prácticamente un fraude científico, y por tanto la histeria del calentamiento global y el protocolo de Kyoto una estafa de proporciones mundiales, es esperanzador que los medios de gran difusión comiencen a hacerse eco de los estudios que van contra la doctrina oficial, el presunto consenso científico.

(via The Commons Blog)